CONSIDER THIS:
In spite its abundance of oil wealth, the current combined economic output of the Middle East is approximately $700 billion-less than the corresponding GDP level for the economy of Canada alone and a mere 2.2% of the global economy.
[Source: Negroponte, Nicholas. Being Digital. New York: Random House, Inc. 1995.]

Population: 50 years ago, this region accounted for 2.5% of the total world population. Today it accounts for 5%. By 2050, we expect it to grow to more than 7% of the world total-to some 560 million people. The region currently accounts for a little over 300 million people-about the same as the United States and about a quarter of the populations in India and China, respectively. Three countries alone-Egypt, Iran and Algeria--make up roughly one-half of the total population in the region.

Energy: Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil producer, with output of around 8m barrels/day. It has by far the world's largest proven reserves of crude oil, currently estimated at close to 260bn barrels. Based on current output, this is sufficient for almost 90 years' extraction. In recent years oil wealth has transformed the country's economy, although its politics and society remain conservative. The economy is dominated by the oil sector, which, since the end of the Gulf war in 1991, has contributed an average of 35% of nominal GDP, around 75% of government revenue and 85% of export receipts.

Development: According to the UN Development Program, if the work force in the Arab countries grows by only 2-3% a year, it will translate into demand for 50 million new jobs across the region by 2010. If unemployment persists at current levels, the pool of unemployed could easily double-to some 25 million by 2010.

 
   
 

AND DID YOU KNOW?

  • Today, there are more women graduating from university and secondary school in Saudi Arabia than men.
  • Egypt has the largest population and the second largest economy in the Arab world.
  • More than $50B in US Aid has gone to Egypt since 1978. Egypt is the second highest receiver of foreign aid from the U.S. second only to Israel.
  • The US census Bureau estimates that Saudi population has climbed from 6 million in 1970 to 22 million in 2004.
  • Currently Saudi fertility rate is one of the highest in the world, with an average of approximately 6.21 children born/woman. Even if birth rates fall, Saudi population will triple over the next 50 years. The majority of the population will be very young.
  • Among native Saudi males unemployment is officially around 12% among Saudi males, and in practice about 25%.
 
 

WANT TO LEARN MORE?

Suggested Reading:
Anthony H. Cordesman, Saudi Arabia Enters the Twenty-first Century: Volume1: The Political, Foreign Policy, Economic, and Energy Dimensions, Praeger/CSIS, April 2003.

Anthony H. Cordesman, Saudi Arabia Enters the Twenty-first Century: Volume 2: The Military and International Security Dimensions, Praeger/CSIS, April 2003.

Shibley Telhami and Michael N. Barnett, Identity and Foreign Policy in the Middle East, January 2002

Shibley Telhami, The Stakes: America in the Middle East: The Consequences of Power and the Choice for Peace, December 2003

Carrie Rosefsky Wickham, Mobilizing Islam, Columbia University Press; edition (October 15, 2002)

Gilles Kepel, Jihad: The Trail of Political Islam, Belknap Press; (March 31, 2003)

Bernard Reich, David E. Long (Editor), The Government and Politics of the Middle East and North Africa (4th Edition) Westview Press; 4th edition (March 15, 2002)

Thomas W. Lippman, Inside the Mirage: America's Fragile Partnership With Saudi Arabia, Westview Press; (January 6, 2004)

Timothy Mitchell, Rule of Experts: Egypt, Techno-Politics, Modernity, University of California Press; (November 2002),

Websites:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/default.stm

http://www.metimes.com/

http://www.sunship.com/mideast/info/index.html

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/eg.html

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/sa.html

Articles:

Worldatlas.com

Mapresources.com

http://www.digiwis.com/catl_ani.htm

 



SEVEN FUTURES identifies and analyzes the driving forces of change shaping seven distinct geographical regions out to the year 2025 and beyond. How will leaders from within these regions and within other countries respond? Seven Futures challenges leadership across the world to think seriously about events that are over the horizon and outside their borders. SEVEN FUTURES is directed by Erik R. Peterson, Senior Vice President, William A. Schreyer Chair in Global Analysis, and Director, Global Strategy Institute at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). To bring SEVEN FUTURES to a city near you, contact Laura Keating at lKeating@csis.org.   Technical Questions? (c) 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004.