CONSIDER THIS: In 1950, the Soviet Union had the fourth largest population on the planet. By 2050, Russia will fall to 17th place…

One of the key drivers of Russia and Eurasia in the next quarter century will be the crisis of a rapidly declining population. Coupled with the alarming prevalence of HIV/AIDS and weapons of mass destruction from the Soviet era, Russia faces significant challenges in its future.

Depopulation: Russia's current population, which stands at approximately 144 million, will fall to roughly 136 million by 2025. The Ukraine alone has experienced a 6.1% decline since 1991. Along with the issue of depopulation, Russia will see its society aging, with half of the population over the age of 40 by 2020.

HIV/AIDS: With the highest growth rate of HIV/AIDS in the world, the number of affected citizens in Russia is expected to triple by the year 2020. The Ukraine, with roughly 400,000 cases of HIV/AIDS, leads the region in HIV/AIDS prevalence.

WMD proliferation: Left from the days of the Cold War, Russia continues to hold large inventories of weapons of mass destruction.

Eurasia: There are twelve states of the former Soviet Union that form Eurasia - Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. While these Newly Independent States (NIS) are becoming competitors in the foreign investment and global markets, they must also overcome problems of government corruption.

AND DID YOU KNOW?

• In the world of energy, Russia has the most natural gas production and is second in oil exports. In the next twenty years, Russia is expected to maintain its role as a top supplier of oil.
• The physical infrastructure of Russia is roughly three times older than OECD countries and will need substantial direct investment in the next twenty years.
• The Georgian-Russian Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, due for completion by 2005, will be the first direct pipeline connecting the Mediterranean to the Caspian and will transport an estimated one million barrels of crude oil per day¹.
  
  ¹www.caspiandevelopmentandexport.com/ASP/BTC.asp

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Eurasia—definition:

12 New Independent States (NIS) of the former Soviet Union -- Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. www.eurasia.org

The number of personnel in uniform has decreased from 4 million to about 1.2 million.


Russia's prospects are further clouded by a crisis of depopulation. The country's population has declined from 150 million in 1991, when the Soviet Union broke up, to roughly 144 million at the end of 2002.


Optimistic sources project that by 2025 this number will fall to about 136 million; the UN projects 126 million. www.csis.org - "Russia: Power in Weakness?"


Finally, there is the WMD legacy from the Soviet days-the large inventories of weapons of mass destruction ranging from the nuclear weapon stockpile of some 20,000 weapons, 500 metric tons of highly enriched uranium, 150 tons of military-use plutonium, and a cocktail of biological agents and chemical weapons.

• According to the U.S. Census Bureau, by the year 2020 half the Russia population will be over the age of 40 and nearly 15% will be over the age of 65. (7 Futures)
• Rankings
  • First in natural gas production (20.5 trillion cubic ft)
  • First in environmental areas under protection (10,863)
  • Largest country (16,995,800 square km)
  • Most abortions (as of 1995… more current estimate?)
  • 2nd highest number of murders (28,904 in 2000)
  • 2nd highest number of prisoners (923,556 in 2000)
  • 2nd highest oil exporter (4.91 mb/day in 2001)
  • 2nd most armed forces (1,520,000) o 2nd most library books (73,631,760) http://www.nationmaster.com/country/rs/Top-Rankings
• The World Bank's most recent study on corruption ranks Russia in the top 25% of countries that are most corrupt. www.csis.org - "Russia: Power in Weakness?"
• Optimistic figures for Russia in 2020 by the World Bank estimated 21,000 Russians a month dying of the disease, with a total HIV infected population of 5.4 million. Less optimistic projections estimate that, without preventative measures being undertaken, Russia will have over 14 million HIV cases by 2020 - more than 10% of the total population of the country. http://csis.org/ruseura/projects.htm III. Eurasia
• Ukraine, Russia, and Romania are the top three countries in the world with nuclear reactors under construction http://www.nationmaster.com/country/rs/Top-Rankings
• Ukraine: The 2001 census registered a 6.1-percent decline [3 million, from 51,706,700 to 48,457,100]. · Ukraine has the highest rate of AIDS infection in post-communist Europe. The UN estimates that 400,000 people, 1 percent of the population, may be HIV-positive. http://161.58.193.170/pubs/view/rer_002_003_003.htm
• Indeed, China, India, and Russia together could experience more HIV infections and AIDS deaths over the coming quarter-century than the entire planet has thus far. http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.14503,filter./pub_detail.asp BTC/separatist movements- weak governments, unemployment- total blackouts in Georgia