CONSIDER THIS: Because of East Asia's economic growth, the number of people living on $2 a day will fall from more than a billion in 1990 to a projected 340 million by the year 2015.

China: At the core of this movement is China, of course. However, the country must sustain its current growth rates to maintain momentum in reforms and the opening to the world economy through WTO accession. If rapid growth does not continue, serious social pressures could emerge from the huge unemployed sections of the economy.

Japan: By 2025, Japan will have 5.2 million elderly people. By 2050, 42.3 percent of the population will be over age 60. As the workforce shrinks, fewer workers will be expected to support a growing number of retirees, placing strains on the national pension and social security systems. Japan's current net immigration is close to zero, and Japanese society remains reluctant towards immigrants and their assimilation into society.

Indonesia: Indonesia sits on generous oil reserves of its own, and through its waters pass about half of all the world's shipping, including most of the energy requirements of Japan and South Korea. For Indonesian taxpayers, the aftermath of the Asian crisis has been a disaster. The recapitalization of the banking system in the past six years has cost them around 650 trillion rupiahs ($77 billion). Around 100 banks out of 250 have been closed and the rest restructured.

The Philippines: electronics make up almost 70% of its exports, and it sends 30% of them to America. It consumes more imported oil per dollar of GDP than any other country in South-East Asia. It suffers from terrorism, insurgencies and crime. Its ballooning public debt is already weighing on the economy.

And did you know?

• 65% of the world's people now live in free or partly free countries, up from 53% in 1972. Of the 2.2 billion people living in unfree countries, almost two-thirds are in China.
• A critical danger is the penetration of HIV/AIDS into the mainstream population. According to the NIC assessment, China's number of HIV cases could rise to 10-15 million by 2010 alone.
• Singapore relies on neighboring Malaysia for about half of its water supply.
• Indonesia is the largest country, in terms of population, after China, India and the US.
• Indonesia has a dire record of trademark violations, including piracy as bizarre as Sony underwear, Intel jeans and Rolex cigarettes.
• Exports make up 40% or more of GDP for the big economies in the SE Asian region. America is the biggest trading partner for most of them, and electronics the main export.
• At the end of 2004, the Multifiber Arrangement, a quota system that has governed, and distorted, the world textile market for decades, is scheduled to expire. Apart from agriculture, textiles and clothing are among the last products where governments rather than markets determine trade patterns. China, with its army of low-paid workers, will be a big winner from the demise of this regime. According to Mr. Lardy, its share of the American clothing market, for instance, could zoom up from 12% in 2002 to 30% once restrictions are lifted.

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